The future of quantum computing: New study provides orientation until 2032

Technological developments in quantum computing have made considerable progress in recent years. Nevertheless, it remains a challenge to utilise the great potential of this technology commercially. The "Quantum Computing – Applications for the Economy" funding programme of the BMWK (Federal Ministry for Economic Affairs and Climate Action) is contributing to this by developing software and applications through nine innovative projects that are advancing the economic development of quantum computing.

Agile project funding through strategic foresight

In order to better understand the progress and challenges in this rapidly developing field, the programme support team of the DLR Projekträger conducted a strategic foresight study on the technology programme under the motto "Quantum computing on the move". The SINAVI model (Strategic Impact Navigation Assessment Model) developed by the DLR Projektträger was used. Using strategic foresight methods such as trend analyses, interviews and Delphi surveys, the researchers developed a realistic scenario for the year 2032–ten years after the start of funding.

The insights gained were combined with information from the accompanying performance review of the funding programme. The result: a holistic picture of the successes and possible further developments of the funding programme.

Recommendations for action: Setting the course for a possible future

However, the findings from the strategic foresight can also serve as a guide for other players in the quantum computing ecosystem. The central result is therefore six overarching recommendations for action for the further development of quantum computing. Specifically, these include, for example

- establishing and expanding a strong European quantum computing ecosystem,
- creating planning security through long-term commitments and strategies in a coordinated funding landscape and
- prepare for the productive use of quantum computing.

The study is also intended to give other stakeholders the opportunity to take up the impetus for their own work. Prof. Claudia Linnhoff, LMU Munich, for example, who heads the QCHALLenge project and was involved in the Delphi survey, commented: "From today's perspective, I assume that quantum computing will be able to solve industrial problems in the fields of artificial intelligence, optimisation, etc. much more efficiently within the next ten years. However, in order to realise the full potential of this technology, it is crucial to identify suitable use cases and develop appropriate quantum algorithms. Extensive research and development are therefore essential in order to utilise the disruptive potential of quantum computing for industry."
The study is intended as a contribution to the technological development of quantum computing. The aim of the scientific support provided by the BMWK (Federal Ministry for Economics Affairs and Climate Action) funding programme is to set the course for the future and drive forward the economic development of this pioneering technology.

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